Agentic commerce is shifting from forecast to reality in some markets. New data from NielsenIQ shows that while Western consumers are still debating whether AI will shop for them, AI agents in parts of Asia are already completing purchases at meaningful scale — and analysts now size the global opportunity at $3–5 trillion by 2030.
Agents Are Already Transacting at Scale
According to Ant Group, its Alipay AI Pay system processed more than 120 million transactions during the single week of February 5–11, 2026. The same report also cites market data showing that Alibaba's Qwen assistant reached 100 million monthly active users within just two months of launch.
These figures come from NielsenIQ's new global report, The Commerce Revolution: Where East Meets West, which frames agentic commerce as moving from experiment toward everyday infrastructure — with AI becoming the connective layer across live, social, and quick commerce formats.
The Money — and the Traffic — Is Following
Analysts at McKinsey size the global agentic commerce opportunity at $3–5 trillion by 2030, while Morgan Stanley projects agents could drive $190–385 billion — roughly 10–20% — of US e-commerce by that same year.
Discovery itself is shifting toward machines: Adobe Analytics reported a 1,200% increase in traffic from generative AI sources to US retail websites between July 2024 and February 2025. Visitors arriving through generative AI sources also showed stronger engagement, including more pages per visit and lower bounce rates, even though conversion still trailed more established traffic sources.
"While much of the West is still debating whether AI will shop for us, in parts of Asia it already is, quietly completing purchases at a scale most boardrooms haven't registered. But the real story is not just what AI can do — it's what shoppers will allow it to do."— Emilie Darolles, President West Europe, NielsenIQ
An East–West Story That Cuts Both Ways
China is proving the demand side of agentic commerce, with agents already transacting at consumer scale, while the West is building the trust and measurement rails needed to make agentic commerce safe for both high-consideration and everyday purchases. NielsenIQ argues the eventual winners will be brands that prepare now — structuring product data, earning a place in AI consideration sets, and building measurement for a world where the shopper may be a machine.