New Rakuten Study Reveals That Shopper Loyalty Hangs In The Balance

Rakuten, the leading Cash Back shopping platform, has released new research in partnership with The Harris Poll, uncovering a growing divide between consumer purchasing behavior and retailer expectations. According to the study, while 55% of consumers say they will focus on finding the lowest prices, only 5% of retailers believe shoppers will abandon brand loyalty to opt for cheaper alternatives.

This disconnect reveals a fundamental tension in the marketplace. Retailers acknowledge shoppers are price-sensitive, yet 33% believe customers will still find ways to save while sticking with their favorite brands. Another 32% expect shoppers to switch to discount retailers that carry those preferred brands, rather than settling for lesser-known options.

“Consumers are looking for value, but the cost of doing business is increasing for retailers,” explained Julie Van Ullen, Chief Revenue Officer at Rakuten Rewards. “Retailers cannot assume loyalty will hold if they raise prices. Instead, they must explore other ways—like Cash Back incentives—to attract value-driven shoppers without increasing costs.”

Consumer Budgets Are Getting Tighter

The study reveals a stark reality for today’s shoppers:

  • 19% of consumers cannot afford to pay household bills.
  • 17% say they are unable to afford basic necessities like food and gas.
  • Only 36% feel they can manage daily expenses and still afford non-essentials.
  • 28% can’t afford personal purchases such as clothing, makeup, or electronics.
  • 41% plan to shop less than they have in previous years.

Despite this, retailers are staying optimistic. 74% say they understand consumers are struggling more with affordability compared to last year, but 73% still believe they will hit their sales goals in the first half of 2025. Supporting this optimism is an increase in marketing investment, with 67% of retailers reporting higher marketing budgets year-over-year.

Economic and Political Volatility Weighs on Shoppers

Inflation continues to dominate consumer sentiment, with 39% citing it as the top factor influencing their 2025 shopping plans. A significant majority (77%) believe prices will continue to rise throughout the year.

Grocery prices are also reshaping shopping habits. Over half (57%) of consumers say rising grocery costs are leading them to reduce non-essential purchases. When it comes to coping with grocery inflation:

  • 41% are paying more to stick with the same brands.
  • 39% are switching to more affordable options.
  • 13% are avoiding certain price-inflated products altogether.

“For retailers to meet their sales objectives, they will need to earn a significant share of an increasingly limited consumer spend,” Van Ullen noted. “With shrinking wallets and bigger marketing budgets, the time has come for bolder, more strategic promotions.”

Retailers Shift Focus, But Brand Awareness Still Reigns

Retailers recognize shifting shopper priorities, but many remain hopeful that loyalty will endure. This optimism is reflected in their marketing strategies for 2025:

  • 83% are prioritizing social media advertising.
  • 65% are investing in search.
  • 50% are focusing on display advertising.
  • Only 36% are making performance marketing, such as affiliate marketing, a top priority.

That said, there’s a growing shift. 30% of marketers are reallocating budget from upper-funnel to lower-funnel initiatives, and nearly half (48%) are increasing investments in reward-based strategies like loyalty programs and Cash Back.

As retailers navigate an unpredictable economic climate, aligning with real-time consumer behavior and leveraging value-based incentives may be the key to capturing shopper loyalty—and driving sustainable growth.