Elon Musk Predicts Money Will Become Irrelevant in Less Than 20 Years

Elon Musk's theory of AI abundance suggests that energy will be the true currency, making “working optional and money irrelevant” in a world of Transformative AI (TAI).

Flipping a thorny sci-fi chapter, tech luminary Elon Musk has recently doubled down on his prediction that advances in AI and robotics will usher in a future where work becomes optional.

The Tesla and SpaceX chief, who recently signed a pay package for US$1tn, suggested in a recent interview with Nikhil Kamath that we’re headed toward a world of abundance where “if you can think it, you can have it”.

“In a future where anyone can have anything, you no longer need money as a database for labour allocation.”

“If AI and robotics are big enough to satisfy all human needs, then the relevance of money declines rapidly, I’m not sure we will have it.”

Elon Musk suggests that advancements in AI and robotics will create a world where “if you can think it, you can have it” | Credit: Getty Images and Joshua Lott

Elon’s forecast isn’t pinned to some far-flung horizon. He thinks this reality could arrive in less than 20 years, with work recast as more of a hobby.

His bet hinges on AI and robotics driving massive output in goods and services, propelling us toward what he calls a Universal High-Income Society.

Transformative AI: “A Country of Geniuses in a Data Centre”

A recent National Bureau of Economic Research paper titled A Research Agenda for the Economics of Transformative AI defines TAI as “AI that enables a sustained increase in total factor productivity growth of at least 3–5x of historical averages”.

That tier of AI mirrors Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s description of powerful AI as “a country of geniuses in a data centre”.

And, by Musk’s account, once humanoid robots enter the frame, output of goods and services will spike, ushering in a world of abundance.

Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, says he is “not as confident that AI can address inequality and economic growth as he is that it can invent fundamental technologies”.

With AI surpassing human intelligence, TAI could link innovative dots across disciplines that human specialists might miss, accelerating the pace of discovery and innovation.

Still, some research cautions that the gains from automation may accrue to capital owners rather than workers, unless AI is steered to complement labour instead of replacing it.

Musk argues that in an abundant economy, accumulating wealth would become pointless.

“If you are stranded on a desert island with a trillion dollars, it will be pointless because there is no labour to allocate.”

Will Money Disappear and What Stands in the Way?

By Elon’s lights, in an abundant economy where money fades into irrelevance, “energy will be the true currency”.

If AI and robotics begin producing chips, solar panels, and mining resources to power more AI and robots, the energy loop closes.

“Once that cycle is complete, we decouple from the monetary system.”

What may follow, he suggests, is a crisis of purpose: “If AI can do things better than you, what is the point of doing things?”

Utopian as Musk’s vision may be, plenty stands between today and that economic heaven. Energy constraints, hardware bottlenecks, and uneven AI deployment could slow progress.

IMF research also suggests AI adoption will vary widely between countries, potentially widening the gap between developed and developing economies.

Dario Amodei echoed these concerns in his essay Machines of Loving Grace:

“Ideally, powerful AI should help the developing world catch up to the developed world… I am not as confident that AI can address inequality and economic growth as I am that it can invent fundamental technologies.”

AI regulation, alignment, and safety challenges remain major concerns as humanity approaches Artificial General Intelligence.

Musk’s utopia is ultimately shaded by his own black-hole analogy for AI – an event horizon beyond which we cannot see what truly lies ahead.